New Emerson Poll Has Jim Renacci Catching Sherrod Brown By Election Day: The 2018 election will be won by voter turnout

A new Emerson Poll fresh off the wire tells the story in Ohio quite well. It has Senator Sherrod Brown, the long-time liberal Democrat at 49% ahead of the midterm election with Jim Renacci, the Republican challenger, at 43%. It tells a similar story about Richard Cordray who is of the same kind of liberal mind as Sherrod Brown at 49% while Mike DeWine is at 46%. Although that shows key Republicans losing, at this moment it does provide some interesting analysis. It certainly puts them in the margin of error meaning that the strength of voter turnout will contribute directly to the success or failure of Republicans. Without capturing more than 49% of voter approval neither Democrat running for the big races in Ohio can break 50% of support and that means that their base is supporting them, but they can’t get any higher. Ohio leans to the right so without breaking 50% there is a very stunning statistic there that doesn’t look good for any Democrat.

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-close-governor-races-ohio-oregon-kansas-democrats-look-pick-congressional-seat-kansas#.W9l35_ZFyM8

My thoughts on polls is that they are the best information that we have about the trends in voting, but I am skeptical of them. We can’t assume that these are wrong and are likely higher from Emerson. Data is data and we have to look at it and let it tell us the story as is. I’m quite aware of suppression polls, and the Rush Limbaugh theory of what happens as elections tighten up. No pollster wants to look bad and to get it wrong on election day, so any fantasies of suppression polls go away as election day nears, which is likely why so many Republicans across the country are suddenly looking so much better. Suppression polls of course are where pollsters take unusually high samples of Democrat voters to help make the poll tell a more optimistic story for liberal candidates to shape the narrative, particularly in early voting. The tactic is to take the energy out of rival campaigns and cause them to throw up their arms, or not spend that extra money on ads to push for final vote counts as election day nears. We know that happens, but at this point we are through a lot of that. The other thing that is certainly a factor is that Republicans and Democrats do not behave the same way. Speaking for myself I did receive this year lots of attempts by pollsters to call me, but I never pick up the phone unless I know the person calling me. Usually I’m not in a position to take a call as my day is very busy from sun up to sun down. So pollsters don’t capture Republicans like me in their samplings, where Democrats are very social people and tend to pick up their phones a larger percentage of the time. That can swing results to the +5 or to the negative side.

Yet when polling does show this tight of a race, voter turnout will be the unquestioned determining factor, which side has the most energy to support their party. Democrats have obviously been working for two years to build up the energy for a big midterm showing with their push for the Mueller investigation against Trump, for the various caravan issues coming up from Mexico, for their efforts as socialized health care and the constant protests, the drag-assing of the President’s agenda especially in the Kavanaugh situation. A combination of all those things and a constant drum beat from the mainstream media has been to suck the life out of Trump and to give it to Democrats to have a big showing at the midterms and to start the process of running the President out of power well ahead of the 2020 elections. But I see a different trend, one that favors Trump and across the country those that have been backed by Trump directly, like Jim Renacci in Ohio are doing much better than they otherwise would and if voter turnout for Republicans is high—which early voting numbers appear for them to be, then beating incumbent liberals like Sherrod Brown is not far-fetched.

All this has reminded me that if just the gun lobby showed up on election day and voted in mass that likely all the Republicans in these tight races would easily win. If gun owners voted on Election Day 2018 Republicans would win their seats, it’s that close and the gun lobby is that powerful, as it should be. That’s why Democrats hate it so much. The results of election day are completely in the hands of conservatives to win. Sherrod Brown does not have some mythical support base that cuts into all Ohioans. Even after three decades in politics he does not have voter crossover into the other party. Women are voting for liberals like Cordray and Brown at a rate about 3% higher than males, but this latest poll was put together before that disastrous debate at Miami University. In that debate Sherrod Brown’s history with domestic violence and sexual assault came to question and its likely that women opinions on that matter did not make it into this Emerson poll. So, there is room there for variation as well.

It is not smart to go into Election Day with the hope that polls are wrong and that Republicans will pick up 7 to 8% points by default, which is how it was with Trump in 2016. I was saying many of the same things then that I’m saying now and it turned out to be true. Polls get you information, but they don’t tell the whole story, that is determined by voter enthusiasm and Democrats have a flat line in regard to that. Sure, they can turn out the union vote and some radical ANTIFA types that overturn cars in the streets and break out windows, but they don’t have a smart voter class that can adjust to opposition. Their bench just isn’t that deep. Democrats require people to function completely off empathy instead of logic and Trump has been too successful to fuel radical groups to head to the polls. Even with liberal samplings being higher than conservatives who pick up the phone and indicate early voting patterns, Sherrod Brown and Richard Cordray can’t break 50% and that is the big story here. If they can’t do that under the most optimal conditions, they are very vulnerable to voter enthusiasm gaps.

My advice to you dear reader is to make sure that if you do nothing else in the next month is that you go vote for your local Republican. Take nothing for granted and don’t wait for someone else to do it for you. You need to show up and cast your vote like your life depends on it, because in some cases, it does. Democrats if they are defeated in 2018 soundly, and it looks like they will be, will never recover from such a loss. It’s true America is very divided and along party lines. The best way to change that is to destroy that other party completely and then welcome people from the other side to join Republicans into keeping America great. That is the most humane way to solve the divisions we have. Like the Civil War, it will take Democrats decades to realize they are on the wrong side of history and assimilate into the greater American culture, but on Election Day 2018 its important that we look at it like a battle that could potentially end a long war in America—and set up a new day in the life of every American, one that is much brighter under Republican control than it ever was at any point in previous history.

Rich Hoffman

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