There is a reason while after all these years so many smart people read this blog and follow its advice, it’s because you can trace back through history and see how many times I was correct about something that nobody could yet see on the horizon. And that trend continues to this very day. Stupid people look at my articles and they think they are too long, because essentially people don’t read any more so long articles are discouraging to lazy people. But I don’t write for the stupid and passive, but for the aggressive and wise which of course pays off for the right kinds of minds. So with that little prelude I am happy to state that there will not be a recession economically so long as there is a Trump in the White House, which will probably be for the next 12 years or so, after the 2020 election which readers here know I have already predicted will go to a second Trump term. After the next four years of Donald J. Trump I predict that Don Jr. will run and win the presidency and the economic foundations that have been planted in these early first term strategies will pay off tactically in 2020 and beyond. These fears of recession are simply that, and based on no evidence other than political hopes by the other side that something will stop the Trump administration. With the Mueller investigation out of the way, there is nothing to stop Trump in the White House and the red-hot economy that has come with him.
Many people just don’t understand what makes up an economy, including many economists who have learned all the wrong rules about market fluctuations. The expansions and contractions of economic behavior are not set in stone by the rules of academia, but are rather quite reflective of the cultural temperament of our world. By studying any culture ancient or modern their rise and falls are determined along a known trajectory of over tightened regulation or loose autonomous freedom. There is a reason that great minds for instance come to the United States to develop projects from all over the world while China has to steal technology just to compete in the marketplace, it’s because of the nature of human beings and the cultures they create. Economic expansion is a reaction to those cultural elements, not the ebb and flow of emotional responses to it.
So to put it simply, so long as mankind is advancing, not regressing, which has been quite a danger in the past—just as any great culture rises and falls, somebody in the world will be the benefactor of that expansion. For a number of years Europe and Asia have been propped up by overregulation in the United States which allowed for explosive growth in China. But under the Trump administration which is an America first platform, the economic expansion is occurring at the point of consumption. It is in North America where a vast majority of economic transaction is taking place making it once again the provider and consumer of expanding economic activity. With space markets emerging and traditional markets moving from eastern to western manufacturing the United States is in a safe spot to enjoy continued economic expansion. Countries however that have been artificially propped up by global markets, such as communist China are vulnerable and will see declining influence. But that influence is not indicative of the markets in general, only in the artificial manipulation of those markets by wishes to make communism appear more effective than it is. In all reality, that desire has been a restraint on our global demands for products and services. By transferring those elements back to the United States, markets can increase based on true demand, which will then unleash more economic expansion.
In Europe their economic expansion has been limited by their commitment to socialism. All the major economic contributors to the EU are of some brand or another socialist in nature. That has had a devastating impact on economic growth as all socialist countries experience. The growth that Europe had seen, as small as it was, had more to do with United States policies to raise taxes and burden on itself to push companies into Europe and China. The actual growth was not real, it was completely artificial created only by stealing the value from America and sending it overseas. It had nothing to do with actual market forces. It was simply wealth redistribution. The wealth was created by a cultural demand among human populations. The fulfillment of that wealth need was artificially distributed. It wasn’t Europe that created the market need so watching forecasts which indicate growth or decline in those markets will not tell any investor anything, other than Europe isn’t a safe place to put money, which is why they are declining.
Literally there is nowhere else in the world that is producing positive market growth due to their overly regulatory elements. China doesn’t care about poisoning the planet at all, but under their communist rule, they limit the development of autonomous people who will become the next great drivers of economic activity. The kind of people a society produces has a lot to do with continued economic expansion. Of course, any economy needs people to buy cars, purses and fast food—a consumer class. But if a society is top-heavy in those kinds of people, they will have big trouble if they aren’t artificially propped up in some way by a friend or neighbor. What a strong economy needs most are people who design those cars, purses and new kinds of fast food. Engineers, entrepreneurs, and a business class level of bankers and investors. In cultures who hate banks and money it should be no surprise that they have limited economic opportunity, especially if the politics of financial transference is shut off from their consumption rate.
For an economy to work well, it needs freedom, people need to be free to think and create then market their attributes to the elements of economic expansion. I would recommend to anyone who can to visit the great Louvre in Paris and to witness all the great works of art there. From that one museum you can essentially witness much of the cultural activity of the last 2000 years. It is quite a phenomenal place. But you can also see the cracks that have formed in Western Civilization that are the direct result of socialism and communism, of overly managed societies and their impacts directly on the world around them. The Louvre for all its greatness of collections and majesties doesn’t have enough bathrooms, and its dining options are severely limited. They need to learn a thing or two from Disney World where customer service and options are among the best in the world. In France they don’t understand their history, they only know that it happened. They clearly don’t understand the rise and decline of their culture and the museum pieces they have on collection. All they know is that those things happened, they don’t know why.
Just yesterday I was with my family at Chick fil-A at Bridgewater Falls in Butler County and at 2:30 PM well past lunch and well before dinner, the place was packed, the dining room full and the drive thru was wrapped around the building in a double line. Why? Because Chick-fil-A goes the extra steps of above the line thinking, they put out fresh flowers on the tables, are polite to their guests and they are willing to fight for that market share by giving people what they can’t get at home, attention. Some good conduct at the business end of anything can generate market share all its own and it really is that simple.
To understand where the American economy is going and why a recession is not even on the horizon is to understand the rate for which our human culture is expanding and the limited cast of characters on the world stage that can actually participate on the supply side. As consumers, there is virtually an unlimited supply of need, but there has to be contributors to actually building those economies. And under the Trump administration and policies, there is no place on earth more friendly to economic expansion than the United States. China will continue to hemorrhage value because they never created it to begin with. It was given to them as part of a smoke and mirror show to support communism. It was never a real value. And Europe is in the same situation. Yet the market need for economic expansion is real, and so far only the United States has endeavored to fulfill that need. And so long as that is the case, which certainly is true for the foreseeable future, there will only be positive growth in the United States. And you can take that to the bank.
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