New Emerson Poll Has Jim Renacci Catching Sherrod Brown By Election Day: The 2018 election will be won by voter turnout

A new Emerson Poll fresh off the wire tells the story in Ohio quite well. It has Senator Sherrod Brown, the long-time liberal Democrat at 49% ahead of the midterm election with Jim Renacci, the Republican challenger, at 43%. It tells a similar story about Richard Cordray who is of the same kind of liberal mind as Sherrod Brown at 49% while Mike DeWine is at 46%. Although that shows key Republicans losing, at this moment it does provide some interesting analysis. It certainly puts them in the margin of error meaning that the strength of voter turnout will contribute directly to the success or failure of Republicans. Without capturing more than 49% of voter approval neither Democrat running for the big races in Ohio can break 50% of support and that means that their base is supporting them, but they can’t get any higher. Ohio leans to the right so without breaking 50% there is a very stunning statistic there that doesn’t look good for any Democrat.

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-close-governor-races-ohio-oregon-kansas-democrats-look-pick-congressional-seat-kansas#.W9l35_ZFyM8

My thoughts on polls is that they are the best information that we have about the trends in voting, but I am skeptical of them. We can’t assume that these are wrong and are likely higher from Emerson. Data is data and we have to look at it and let it tell us the story as is. I’m quite aware of suppression polls, and the Rush Limbaugh theory of what happens as elections tighten up. No pollster wants to look bad and to get it wrong on election day, so any fantasies of suppression polls go away as election day nears, which is likely why so many Republicans across the country are suddenly looking so much better. Suppression polls of course are where pollsters take unusually high samples of Democrat voters to help make the poll tell a more optimistic story for liberal candidates to shape the narrative, particularly in early voting. The tactic is to take the energy out of rival campaigns and cause them to throw up their arms, or not spend that extra money on ads to push for final vote counts as election day nears. We know that happens, but at this point we are through a lot of that. The other thing that is certainly a factor is that Republicans and Democrats do not behave the same way. Speaking for myself I did receive this year lots of attempts by pollsters to call me, but I never pick up the phone unless I know the person calling me. Usually I’m not in a position to take a call as my day is very busy from sun up to sun down. So pollsters don’t capture Republicans like me in their samplings, where Democrats are very social people and tend to pick up their phones a larger percentage of the time. That can swing results to the +5 or to the negative side.

Yet when polling does show this tight of a race, voter turnout will be the unquestioned determining factor, which side has the most energy to support their party. Democrats have obviously been working for two years to build up the energy for a big midterm showing with their push for the Mueller investigation against Trump, for the various caravan issues coming up from Mexico, for their efforts as socialized health care and the constant protests, the drag-assing of the President’s agenda especially in the Kavanaugh situation. A combination of all those things and a constant drum beat from the mainstream media has been to suck the life out of Trump and to give it to Democrats to have a big showing at the midterms and to start the process of running the President out of power well ahead of the 2020 elections. But I see a different trend, one that favors Trump and across the country those that have been backed by Trump directly, like Jim Renacci in Ohio are doing much better than they otherwise would and if voter turnout for Republicans is high—which early voting numbers appear for them to be, then beating incumbent liberals like Sherrod Brown is not far-fetched.

All this has reminded me that if just the gun lobby showed up on election day and voted in mass that likely all the Republicans in these tight races would easily win. If gun owners voted on Election Day 2018 Republicans would win their seats, it’s that close and the gun lobby is that powerful, as it should be. That’s why Democrats hate it so much. The results of election day are completely in the hands of conservatives to win. Sherrod Brown does not have some mythical support base that cuts into all Ohioans. Even after three decades in politics he does not have voter crossover into the other party. Women are voting for liberals like Cordray and Brown at a rate about 3% higher than males, but this latest poll was put together before that disastrous debate at Miami University. In that debate Sherrod Brown’s history with domestic violence and sexual assault came to question and its likely that women opinions on that matter did not make it into this Emerson poll. So, there is room there for variation as well.

It is not smart to go into Election Day with the hope that polls are wrong and that Republicans will pick up 7 to 8% points by default, which is how it was with Trump in 2016. I was saying many of the same things then that I’m saying now and it turned out to be true. Polls get you information, but they don’t tell the whole story, that is determined by voter enthusiasm and Democrats have a flat line in regard to that. Sure, they can turn out the union vote and some radical ANTIFA types that overturn cars in the streets and break out windows, but they don’t have a smart voter class that can adjust to opposition. Their bench just isn’t that deep. Democrats require people to function completely off empathy instead of logic and Trump has been too successful to fuel radical groups to head to the polls. Even with liberal samplings being higher than conservatives who pick up the phone and indicate early voting patterns, Sherrod Brown and Richard Cordray can’t break 50% and that is the big story here. If they can’t do that under the most optimal conditions, they are very vulnerable to voter enthusiasm gaps.

My advice to you dear reader is to make sure that if you do nothing else in the next month is that you go vote for your local Republican. Take nothing for granted and don’t wait for someone else to do it for you. You need to show up and cast your vote like your life depends on it, because in some cases, it does. Democrats if they are defeated in 2018 soundly, and it looks like they will be, will never recover from such a loss. It’s true America is very divided and along party lines. The best way to change that is to destroy that other party completely and then welcome people from the other side to join Republicans into keeping America great. That is the most humane way to solve the divisions we have. Like the Civil War, it will take Democrats decades to realize they are on the wrong side of history and assimilate into the greater American culture, but on Election Day 2018 its important that we look at it like a battle that could potentially end a long war in America—and set up a new day in the life of every American, one that is much brighter under Republican control than it ever was at any point in previous history.

Rich Hoffman

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Jim Renacci Destroyed Sherrod Brown in the Final Debate of 2018: Sheree Paolello and Miami University helped make history

If the third and final debate between Jim Renacci and long time Senator Sherrod Brown were a fist fight the liberal would have found his face ripped off and the ring mopped with his blood by the Republican challenger for the election that is taking place on November 6th, 2018. It wasn’t even close, Jim Renacci was very good in that debate even at one point using his accounting skills on the stage to add up Brown’s lobby money to make a point about how the senator had become one of the biggest lobby recipients on the Hill. After watching all the debates, this one was clearly the best one as it was held on the campus of Miami University in their Hall Auditorium to a ruckus crowd that was divided down the middle with Brown supporters on one side, and Renacci supporters on the other. Sheree Paolello along with her Channel 5 partners did a fantastic job with the entire event, I was very impressed with her handling of the crowd and managing the clock. She let Renacci and Brown duke it out on stage without too much clock trouble while letting the audience lightly engage in the debate before commanding their sentiments playfully, but firmly from the stage and bringing everything to a close on time, on national television. I’m a bit of a sucker for competence and I go to a lot of these things, and this one was certainly one of the best run events that I had ever witnessed. Sheree deserves a lot of credit for her fine balance of professionalism and playfulness to really bring out on stage who the two men really were as candidates and that certainly worked to the favor of Jim Renacci.

The tickets for the event were split with Sherrod Brown supporters on the left side of the large room facing the stage and Renacci supporters on the right. There was an upper deck in the hall that had people there as well, and of course those are the type of liberals that activate and always show up at these events to make Democrats look like a larger sampling of society. But this time the Republican had a lot of people of their own. There were more people for Brown which wasn’t surprising for a campus event. Additionally, it was raining and there was a long line to get into the building through security, so for a Friday night to fill a large auditorium on a college campus in the pouring cold rain of a late October in 2018 I was very surprised to find myself surrounded with a very energized crowd for Jim Renacci. It looked to me that the Democrat radicals who obviously showed up to out shout conservatives as they could were shocked as well to find a resistance to their usual antics. At the end of the debate as I show in the video I posted on Twitter, that crowd was certainly different from similar events—the battle lines that ran through our national politics were certainly on full display.

But during the event itself Jim Renacci showed a large range of skills, everything from humor to satirical wit, he kept Sherrod Brown bouncing around on his heels all evening. Brown had a few good lines, but most of the debate he was forced to react to Renacci by attempting to use the same tired old liberal talking points about the environment, growing the economy from the inside out, and attacking banks. Renacci the former accountant and extremely successful businessman was just too much for Brown. It was really a battle between an achiever in Renacci and a Marxist theorist who has tried for three decades to make that vision into a reality and failed time and time again in Brown. The liberals following Brown clearly weren’t used to conservatives having such a good candidate in Renacci supported by such an aggressive crowd of supporters and backed by such a successful President Trump. Jim Renacci was handpicked for this job of incoming senator to give the White House more help on the Hill with the Trump agenda and that clearly exposed a new political wrinkle that Democrats just weren’t prepared for.

Of course, the topic of Brown’s domestic violence problems came up and Renacci handled it particularly well. Brown did what he has been doing to defer the issue by saying that Renacci should be ashamed of himself for even bringing it up. But it was a question from the moderator and Renacci had to answer the question accurately. It was after all Sherrod Brown who tried to keep Brett Kavanaugh out of the Supreme Court by picking the testimony of abuse articulated unsubstantiated by Dr. Ford recently who set a standard of conduct for which he couldn’t live up to. So it was a fair question and all Brown could do was say that various newspapers in the state of Ohio wanted Renacci to stop bringing up the issue. Well, liberal newspapers in the bag for Democrats don’t make the rules—they can decide to cover Republicans and Democrats differently, which they certainly do. If a Republican tried to get away with Sherrod Brown’s answer to the domestic violence question, they would have been ran off the stage, but the media is more than willing to give a free pass to Democrats every time. But Renacci kept the complicated matter on point and exposed the hypocrisy very well. By Sherrod Brown’s own rules that were thrown at Brett Kavanaugh just a few weeks ago, Brown must step down out of the race. His refusal to do so takes away all the merit of his argument against Kavanaugh, which isn’t surprising. Democrats like Sherrod Brown are used to saying one thing and doing another. They glue the whole thing together every time with emotions from their supporters who show up at these events and shout down the other side into shame, but not this time. This time the conservative had a rowdy crowd of their own and once the liberals started breaking the rules of the evening with their frequent outbursts, Renacci’s crowd started doing the same. Security had to move up into the room to threaten to remove provocateurs several times, and at the end things did get a little out of control from the audience perspective. Somehow Sheree Paolello kept the whole thing on the tracks and under those conditions Jim Renacci just shined. Brown obviously wasn’t prepared and lost the debate handedly.

It was a beautiful night to be out on the very nice campus of Miami University. I wish that truly colleges were places that they were intended to be, places of thought and discussion. After the debate the university put on a nice meet and greet out in the lobby which was designed to facilitate good discussion between everyone with some nice beverages and food offerings. It reminded me that colleges were intended to serve a positive function in society among thoughtful people, even though that has not been the reality. They have instead emerged as cesspools of liberalism, but on my way back to the car under the steady rain soaking my suit tight against my skin on a cold night, I felt like the national dialogue had advanced properly. It wasn’t just because my guy won the debate and that liberals were challenged for a change by members of the #MEGA movement, but it was the campus itself showing a turn for the better in these early years of a new century toward what should have always been. And that is truly what Making America Great Again is all about—and on that debate night Channel 5 and the University of Miami played their part in what will soon become history—and the world is better off for it.

Rich Hoffman

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Sherrod Brown Has Serious Problems: Between the domestic abuse and sexual assults the Senate must take a postition against him

For the second straight week Jim Renacci has the extremely liberal Sherrod Brown on the ropes after the debate Saturday night in Ohio for the senate seat held currently by Democrats. That is because Renacci hasn’t been afraid to go to the places Sherrod Brown has been wanting to cover up for three decades in politics, a history of domestic violence and unwanted sexual advancements against women which has come forward since the last debate where the topic was brought up. Brown has been wanting to stay quiet and to stay on Trump’s coattails but Renacci isn’t playing that way much to the Democrat senators’ consternation. The liberal media isn’t happy about it either, because they want Sherrod Brown to keep his seat, and so does the rest of the Democrat party. But it was only a few weeks ago that the very same Sherrod Brown was in the senate voting against Brett Kavanaugh saying that he was unqualified due to the accusations women had against him, but yet when those same accusations have been leveled at him from Renacci, all of a sudden, we are supposed to function from different rules. I don’t think so, you can’t have it both ways.

Sherrod Brown was so frustrated after the second debate that he left without speaking to the press yet again. Before the debate there was a lot of arguing between the campaign managers about where the family of Brown would be sitting, because obviously this talk about sexual misconduct is taking a toll on them. But how does Senator Brown think Brett Kavanaugh’s family felt? Then Brown made the really stupid statement trying to rationalize that Jim Renacci was only bringing these things up because he is a desperate candidate behind in the polls. Well, I wouldn’t count on that, I think Jim Renacci is doing far better in the polls than anybody is willing to admit, especially USA Today and their Gannett publications around the country. But I’m confused, USA Today was one of the leading newspapers in the country saying that Brett Kavanaugh wasn’t qualified to even be a Supreme Court Justice because of the mere allegations of sexual assault. Sherrod Brown has a proven history of domestic abuse, isn’t he equally disqualified if not more so because of the court document proof?

Of course, we all know there is a double standard, but there shouldn’t be. Jim Renacci is squeaky clean and can afford to throw stones in glass houses, and isn’t that what we want? Forget about politics, if a candidate like Jim Renacci can afford to open that can or worms against Sherrod Brown doesn’t that say something very positive about the Republican challenger? Of course, on the issues Brown has been a three-term senator and has a long track record in as one of the most progressive members on the Hill. Renacci himself has a long history as a successful person as a private businessman and a congressman. So both men are accomplished from the perspective of their various political parties. On the subject of issues, people have options in this election between two visions. But it was the Democrats and the very liberal press that brought up this standard of sexual history among candidates. All Renacci did during the debate was ask for a criterion of qualification, for which is a strength of his, so why not use it. If you’ve been a good guy all your life and treated women well, why not use that as a case for why he should be the next senator? Especially when it was Sherrod Brown and his team of liberal senators who set the criteria for which they can’t live up to themselves.

Sherrod Brown represents exactly what is wrong with liberalism, both times in these debates Brown has lectured Renacci about how ashamed of himself he should be for bringing up the domestic abuse case. But what were we told when Brett Kavanaugh tried to inflict shame on his accusers, we were told that the judge lacked the “temperament” to be confirmed to the Supreme Court. Only a liberal who is guilty of committing vile acts against women would have the audacity to lecture an accuser because they count on the media to be their protectors from justice. Yet Renacci has every right to bring up the issue because the Democrats largely led by Brown himself established the criteria of judgment. It could easily be determined that Brown himself does not have the temperament to be in the senate confirming future Trump nominees due to his own history of domestic violence and sexual abuse of women. In these modern times of new definitions of everything we are demanding out of our politicians an even higher degree of scrutiny. And between the two candidates, Renacci can pass that test, Brown cannot. Why should Renacci be ashamed of himself? He’s the one with the clean record.

Of course, Brown would love to keep the election on issues, we all know that the numbers game works on behalf of the incumbent, which is Brown in this case. But in the modern context of how we pick candidates these days, we have to have elected officials who can stand the scrutiny of modern office and by Sherrod Brown’s own standards, he has disqualified himself not only with a well-documented history of domestic violence, but with further allegations by several women of sexual abuse. Brown is very vulnerable to the modern interpretations of sexual abuse and Renacci has every right to bring it up. That is the point of the debates after all, for each candidate to distinguish themselves to voters, the 5 to 8% of voters who are up for grabs outside of the party system. Democrats will vote for Brown, Republicans will vote for Renacci, but it’s those independents that they are both fighting for and among them they have to understand what makes each candidate different. Policy making won’t do it for them. But understanding who is cleaner than the other is, and Renacci has the clear advantage in that regard.

I’m personally really looking forward to the third and final debate between Renacci and Brown at Miami University this upcoming Friday October 26th, 2018. At this point I’m wondering if Brown will even show up. Every time they have a debate his performance gets worse and worse and the media has to acknowledge even reluctantly that Brown has major problems. The Democrats themselves have big trouble because they should take a position against Brown, but they can’t afford to. The Blue Wave that Chuck Schumer was hoping for is turning out to be a mere ripple in a kiddie pool. They aren’t going to pick up seats in the senate, likely they are going to lose them, so they can’t afford to take a moral position against Brown, which will come back to haunt them. Jim Renacci is showing exactly why he should win that seat, because he CAN afford to throw the stones in the glass house. If Democrats had dirt on Jim Renacci, they would have used them by now, so all they can do is hope that the media continues to ignore the domestic abuse story. But the closer we get to the election, the more relevant it becomes. And the more pressure there is for Sherrod Brown to resign, not just to fight to keep his seat. The issue is a hot button topic and its picking up in intensity, as it very well should.

Rich Hoffman

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After this, Sherrod Brown Must Step Down: Jim Renacci just destroyed him in an Ohio debate–it wasn’t even close

These statewide debates are always very polite, but in that context Jim Renacci’s first debate with the three-term senator from Ohio Sherrod Brown was a disaster for one of the most liberal members of the senate. You can see the whole debate below but if you just go to the end the summation will be quite clear, Sherrod Brown walked off the stage and left the building not even giving interviews after Jim Renacci tore him to pieces. Renacci was very well prepared and stayed on issue the entire time. It was quite clear that Jim Renacci knows how to win these kinds of tough elections, which is why President Trump personally picked him to run against Brown. But it was surprising just how much on his heels Brown was during the entire debate, except for one time when Renacci brought up the domestic abuse case that had been hanging around Sherrod Brown’s neck for over thirty years. At that point Brown turned to Renacci and indicated that he should be ashamed of himself for even bringing that up because his ex-wife had forgiven him long ago. But the effect of that line left a very uncomfortable stench in the air that Renacci had successfully exposed.

As a nation we had just watched Brett Kavanaugh have to explain his high school year books when a woman from way back then accused him of rape and it was Democrats themselves who indicated that Kavanaugh just for the accusation of such a monstrosity should be removed from consideration for Supreme Court. Yet Sherrod Brown had the audacity to look at Jim Renacci and say that his challenger should be ashamed of himself for considering specific factual evidence of domestic abuse coming from the Brown household. It really didn’t matter if the ex-wife forgave him, what did matter as established by Democrats is that it happened at all. In the Kavanaugh case it was his word against hers, in this case there is evidence and court documents. If Sherrod Brown had abused women 30 years ago, he was still prone to do so according to logic. So why wouldn’t Brown be knocked out of contention for the senate race in Ohio just by the modern definitions of the #METOO movement? That’s what we’ve all been told by Democrats is supposed to happen.

The reason Brown’s statement to Renacci about the domestic abuse had such an ominous appeal to it that left the room gasping for air because it put on full display a truth we all know, but don’t often see in the light of day. We know there is a double standard in the media between Democrats and Republicans and how the media applies rules of conduct for each. Obviously, the media leans heavily to the political left and they won’t jeopardize a liberal senate seat in Ohio, they are more than willing to give Brown a free pass. And they planned to help Sherrod Brown out with his #METOO problem. His ex-wife was certainly willing to help out but we have seen out of the political left intense hypocrisy applied to President Trump and many others over much less than what Sherrod Brown did. Even at the worst-case scenario if President Trump did have a fling with Stormy Daniels and some other women and it was all consensual, we were told that those events made him not fit for the presidency. But with Brown we were supposed to buy into his sincerity when he looked hurt that Renacci even brought it up. Up until that moment I hadn’t been thinking too much about Sherrod Brown’s domestic violence problems from the past, but by the way he looked at Renacci and expected a different set of rules, it was quite clear that there is a lot more to the story than the media was willing to adhere to.

On every topic Brown was on the back of his feet, it was clear that he didn’t come prepared for the debate. And when Renacci pushed Brown on the lack of work that Brown actually did for Ohio Brown gave a fine example of his behavior right after the debate when Renacci worked the press completely alone. Brown didn’t stay for any questions. Likely he didn’t feel he needed to with a big lead in the Real Clear Politics poll, but as we know, that’s not very reliable. More than that, I think Renacci hit him too hard on the domestic violence issue and it cause trouble at home, and Brown had to fix that rather than talk to the press. Whatever the situation, Renacci showed that he was a much more stable person, and a much harder worker interested in the job. Renacci won the night in both deed and action, it was a brilliant performance.

The choice between Brown and Renacci is very simple. Brown demonstrated that as a guy who had been in Washington for over 30 years that he still hasn’t a clue as to what makes an economy work. Workers don’t have any jobs if not for corporations, so by making big business an enemy, how can anybody expect to create jobs? I mean anybody with basic economic understanding knows that progressive talking points like “global warming,” “tax the rich.” and “being friends with Wall Street” are stupid and idealistic, not rooted in any kind of reality. If workers don’t have jobs because all the employers have been taxed to hell and back and pushed out of the United States, then what good are they? Even for a polished politician Sherrod Brown sounded like a kid in the 1st grade trying to explain economics, he didn’t seem to understand even the basics. But Renacci was an accountant by trade and he knows numbers. He made Brown look like a complete idiot in all economic discussions.

Yet the zinger of the evening was the domestic violence problem for Sherrod Brown. His own party has set the stage for his voluntary removal from office. They established the criteria he must live up to. It reminds me of the Bill O’Reilly situation when liberals were so happy that they used allegations of sexual misconduct to get the long time and popular newsman knocked off the air at Fox News. Then Democrats realized that they had people in their party doing much worse, like big time fundraiser Harvey Weinstein. After Democrat men started dropping like flies the #METOO movement cooled off a lot. Conservatives live pretty good lives, they can throw rocks in glass houses a lot better than Democrats and liberals had to realize that they had opened a can of worms they couldn’t endure themselves. But they reopened that can with the Brett Kavanaugh hearings and now one of their precious senators in Sherrod Brown was guilty of much, much worse—and the facts were there to prove it. That leaves Democrats with no choice really, one way or another they are going to lose that liberal Ohio senate seat because under the modern terms of #METOO, Sherrod Brown must step down. He is not fit to serve—otherwise liberals can never use such an allegation ever again. Just think if Donald Trump looked at his accusers and said what Brown did, that they should be ashamed of themselves for even bringing up something from his past for political reasons? Liberals can’t have it both ways, and Renacci hit the center of the issue during the debate because he dared to ask the question—a question that Democrats cannot answer without giving everything else up. Is one seat worth all that to them? I don’t think so.

If Renacci pushes this issue Democrats will have to abandon Brown, and that little revelation is what emerged from that first debate in Ohio between Renacci and Brown. Brown is vulnerable emotionally on the issue and that sets the stage for a very interesting upcoming three weeks.

Rich Hoffman

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What Makes President Trump So Special: A magic night in Lebanon, Ohio

There were some deeply touching moments in the Trump rally in Lebanon, Ohio which I partially expected. But we’re talking about a sitting president stumping for some midterm candidates here, politics is not supposed to be this exciting and people normally don’t show up five, six and seven hours early to stand in the cold and in the rain to watch a 72-year-old man talk. This is a human phenomenon that is unsurpassed in the history of the world, I don’t even think the great Winston Churchill could have brought out the crowd that greeted President Trump at the Warren County Fair Grounds on Friday October 12, 2018. I was just a little stunned by the event. I had a feeling that there would be a large crowd, but the sheer magnitude of it was just jaw dropping. There was a collision of Americana present that was obvious and inspiring and I thought John London from Channel 5 News in Cincinnati put his finger on it perfectly in his summation of the night.

There is a lot to unpack from this event and it will certainly take more than one article to cover it all but for the sake of brevity here I have to thank the people who gave my daughter and I the opportunity to witness this spectacle from the comfort of the V.I.P. section. Yes it was freezing cold and we got rained on and we did stand most of the time. But at least we had a seat and a good vantage point to watch this unusual moment in history.

I always feel sorry for people who don’t have that kind of access to these big Trump events, but as I looked at people’s faces on the floor, many who had been standing under the roof for more than four hours—before President Trump even arrived—they were happy people just willing to be near the star of the show if even for a moment. People were packed everywhere that people could put themselves for as far as the eye could see and it was quite something to witness. It was inspiring to say the least. If these people were willing to show up in the cold and rain of an October in Ohio, they would surely show up to vote for Republicans Trump endorsed in the upcoming election.

This was my oldest daughter’s first time to go to one of these events with me and she was very touched by it. She is a professional photographer and shares with me a tendency to like to view the world through big picture vantage points. The event organizers couldn’t have put us in a better spot for that particular venue, we had the top row of the bleachers just behind the president. I’ve watched President Trump speak many times so it was good to be behind him because my interest was mostly the crowd. The media never does justice to what the crowds look like from Trump’s point of view and we were fortunate to see the whole thing more from the president’s perspective even watching the motorcade role in to drop him off, and turn around all the vehicles to take him back to Lunken afterwards. President Trump does many very subtle things that only a polished pro like him can do on such large operations with many moving parts coming together seamlessly. He is super smart, from where I was standing I could see him staging up his entry onto the stage to match perfectly the various cable news top of the hour broadcasts, and he ended everything right on time like such a seasoned performer. But he’s of course juggling much more than that just in the complexities of his job. Yet while Steve Chabot was talking the President could get a sense that the crowd was drifting. People not under the roof of that magnificent structure on the fairgrounds were getting soaked, including my daughter and I. People next to us were starting to head for the exit. Trump was watching and he ever so subtly tapped Steve in the middle of the back to change things up a bit. Chabot took the cue and sped up his speech and Trump seamlessly changed gears and held the audience to his next twenty minutes of oration. Most people might not even see the value in such a thing, but that is one of the very raw distinctions that Trump has over everyone else in the world. He is literally a master communicator and he knows exactly what he is doing all the time. I continue to be impressed by President Trump every time I see him live, I don’t think I’d ever get sick of it.

After the event was over and people headed out to the parking lot, which used to be the old horse racing track that was moved to Miami Valley gaming several miles to the west my daughter and I lingered around watching the press. I literally stood next to an AP writer and watched her write the news feed of the event, which she mostly got all wrong. But she was shivering and tapping her feet viciously trying to stay warm. For people who haven’t been to these types of things before the media are always given a spot near the back of a rally to photograph from, and behind that raised camera platform is usually rows of tables so that writers can get their stories out. Mostly these reporters are like anybody else, they just want to get their jobs done and get home. Once the Trump supporters had left for their cars the reporters could relax a bit and get their stories out to their employers to meet their deadlines. Most of those reporters didn’t go to the trouble that John London did at Channel 5. They see hundreds of these types of rallies so there is no magic in them that they can see, they only care about the surface stuff. But one thing that everyone missed from a reporter’s standpoint that was very clear to me was how Trump handled the weather.

Remember when Obama had to have a military official hold an umbrella over him while he gave a speech in the Rose Garden? Well in these times of high insurance rates and overly cautious appraisals of everything I didn’t think Trump’s people would let him take the stage because it had been raining so long. The stage was soaked. Part of the stage entry was raised and ran outside of the roof that most of the rally was under, so it was exposed to the weather. Rain had clearly soaked it after many hours. But Trump did the right thing when he arrived. Some of his security wiped off the platform with towels and Trump walked out across it without any concern for his safety which these days was highly unusual. Lesser people would have called the whole thing off, but not this president.

Trump shows up to talk to his supporters under any condition, and that is part of his appeal. But when he left the rain had been coming down even harder. The safe thing would have been for Trump to take the steps down into the pit and stay under the roof, but no, he went back out the way he came in and the ramp wasn’t dried off at all. Trump walked across it like a seasoned pro not even worrying about slipping and falling. Trump isn’t afraid of little things like that and that is part of what distinguishes him from everyone else. It’s a subtle little thing, but those add up and they make Trump and all those he endorses that much more appealing.

Trump has made the Republican Party much, much better. I’ve always identified myself as a Republican, but I have never been prouder to be affiliated with it. Trump is a superstar, he was before he ever ran for president, yet he’s not so pretentious that he’s afraid of rain, or hard work. And nobody works harder than President Trump.

These rallies may cost a fortune to put on, and may be traffic nightmares, but one thing that comes out of them is that Trump talks directly to people who support him. He doesn’t hide out in the White House enjoying the luxury of the office. He works, and he works hard—and he’s willing to endure the cold and the rain if his supporters are. And that is what makes Donald J. Trump special, and why the Republican Party has a new life because of him. The Democrats don’t have anybody even close and they likely never will.

Rich Hoffman

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The Power Behind the Trump Name: Democrats are in real trouble

Just for perspective when news coverage of something like President Trump’s visit to Lebanon, Ohio occurs network news always feels they have to cover equally the Democratic response. I suppose they think it avoids the optics of appearing to lean to one side instead of the other. But with something like Trump coming to a Northern Cincinnati suburb of great historic value, so many people showed up that it essentially shut down the city as people poured into the fairgrounds of Warren County just a few miles north of the famous Golden Lamb profusely. In fact dear reader, as you are reading this, I am at that event and as far as you can see its Trump Republicans who have swarmed in from all over the countryside. Yet the news coverage of this massive rally featured a kind of Democrat response, a rally of their own called “We Deserve Better” which had about four people and a cat show up. I didn’t think there were any Democrats in Warren County, but a few showed up, and their rally looked pretty pathetic in comparison. Not even on the same level of politics which I thought said a lot about the reality of the upcoming midterms.

As I’ve said from the beginning of this latest political season, it’s going to come down to voter turnout of course. Democrats are energized, but honestly, I think we are seeing what’s left of their party on the news every night. They are fluffing themselves up to look relevant, but in all actuality, they aren’t. Just as the Channel 9 people in Cincinnati felt they had to cover the Democrat response to the Republican rally–truthfully there aren’t enough people in the Cincinnati market who even care anymore to justify the airtime. That is why Trump is able to draw these huge crowds who are more than a little enthusiastic to show up on a chilly October night in Ohio to watch a president two years into office give a stump speech for fellow Republicans. There isn’t anybody like that in the Democrat Party now or in the foreseeable future and that has further coalesced Republicans around Trump. I think it’s quite clear that the amount of people who showed up to see Trump exceeded expectations. Meanwhile, the Democrats were trying to fluff up their feathers to appear as an equal party offering alternatives to the Republican proposals, but people know now what they are really about, it’s socialism and now that they cat is out of the bag, most Americans just aren’t comfortable supporting such a concept on American soil. And it shows with the support of the Democratic Party.

Yes, you can tell a lot about enthusiasm from the population by the size of their rallies. For instance, when I wrote about this very topic two years ago as Trump was looking to be knocked out of the presidential race by the Access Hollywood tapes I was at the rally at U.S. Bank Arena which filled up to the luxury boxes. Hillary had come the week before and had a hard time filling up the little space just a few blocs down the road in downtown Cincinnati between the Ohio River and the Banks development. There is a little park there and Hillary gave a speech and they had to push everyone in tight to make the crowd look bigger on television. I could see then that nobody cared about the Access Hollywood tapes. Trump was different and he was re-writing the rules of politics, rules that the Democrats had controlled for nearly 100 years. Trump had changed them all for the better in just a few months on the campaign trail as president.

I’d like to say that you can believe polls, but here’s the problem with them, pollsters have to call many thousands of people in order to get a statistical sampling of a few hundred, because most people they call don’t want to participate. Of that percentage it is well-known that Republicans don’t answer their phone whereas Democrats are more prone to do so. Democrats are very social creatures, that’s why they lean toward collectivism and political socialism. Conservatives are self-reliant and are often busy with something productive, so they don’t take calls from phone numbers they don’t recognize. Pollsters under pressure to get constant results to the networks that buy them have to produce the results they can get rather than wait for a proper number of Republicans to answer the phone, and that’s how all these polls get screwed up. I don’t think most of the races around the country are as close as they try to make them sound. Networks do with all the races just as they did with the Trump rally, they try to make Democrats look like a viable competitor. But in all actuality the Democrats aren’t even a blip on the map.

I continue to be impressed with Donald Trump, he knows his stuff and nobody outworks him, that’s for sure. This past week he did a rally almost every day and on Thursday before this event in Lebanon he had Kenya West at the White House which really gave some positive media coverage.  It is good marketing to show access to this president, and it was very smart of event organizers to have the wherewithal to string these events together in this way. But Trump gets the credit for having the stamina to pull it all off. The guy just never stops working and it shows. The desperation that the Democrats are now showing is that they don’t have a way to match that energy and they are getting frustrated.

Granted the Lebanon Trump rally is in very conservative country, I’m not sure there are any Democrats who live in the surrounding area. But Trump has shown time and time again that he can pull the same kind of numbers in inner cities and in places where Democrats are running things. In this case, Trump was stumping for so many politicians it made sense to have a rally in the middle of all their districts to accommodate everyone. But to even make a decision like that you have to have the power behind the name to most utilize the President’s presence. Lebanon was a perfect place to have a rally, and it’s a good thing too, because they needed the room for all the people who showed up. Seeing the crowd up close and the energy that was coming from them it is very obvious that things aren’t nearly as close as the media would like to make things appear. That doesn’t mean that Republicans can afford to stay home on election night, but that if they show up Democrats won’t be winning anything. They are a tired party selling an old message of socialism that isn’t very exciting and they are getting torched politically by Donald J. Trump. Even with everything Trump has been through over the last couple of years, he has endured the worst of it and the storm clouds are finally starting to break and his supporters are still there, which was quite obvious in Lebanon, Ohio on October 12, 2018. It looks to me after this next election that Democrats won’t be looking for a president to run against Trump. They will be looking for candidates just to run for local positions, and they won’t be able to find them, because the party itself is about to become extinct. The media won’t say that because they want the ratings of a perceived race between them and Republicans. But I’ll say it.

Rich Hoffman

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Jim Renacci is a Really Great Guy: If 2nd Amendment supporters voted for him, he’d beat Sherrod Brown easily

Every time I have met Jim Renacci I have grown to like him more and more. Usually it’s the opposite effect, the more you get to know someone, the more you find that their little flaws start depreciating your opinion of them. But not Jim Renacci. He has grown on me in a very positive way and I find that when he leaves back to wherever he needs to go next that I actually want to spend more time around him. Even saying all that nice stuff I was very impressed that he came up to me at a fire pit where we were having some fabulous hamburgers fresh off the grill at Premier Shooting and Training Center to shake my hand and talk to me a bit. It was a casual event with only a few hundred people around, most of them were running for office of some kind, but because the event was a 2nd Amendment celebration Jim Renacci flew all the way out from Washington D.C. to attend. At the end of the night he flew back, so he was only around for a few hours, and part of that he came over and stood around the fire with my family enjoying a brief moment of correspondence. Just hours before he was all over Fox Business talking about the Kavanaugh hearings and he was still wearing the same suit, not having time to change. After talking to my family and a few other people he gave the short speech seen below, then went back to the airport.

I’ve known a lot of politicians and it has only been recently where I have found that I like some of them personally. The reason is that we have all emerged into this current circumstance together but doing different things to help restore our republic, so we have that in common to build relationships off of. Ten to fifteen years ago I was not into the group of politicians that were around back then. I was not a John Boehner guy or a supporter of most of the trustees and commissioners. But that has changed quite a lot over the last decade as the Tea Party movement forced an evaluation at the Central Committee level that was hard-fought and heavily debated. Then Donald Trump was elected, and that certainly created a philosophic shift that made the event at Premier Shooting uniquely special. It has also cleared the decks for Jim Renacci to run for some of these big seats as a genuinely good man as opposed to just another political hack. That is why I enjoyed talking so much to Jim Renacci. He’s just a good person.

But as Jim said about his fight with Sherrod Brown, even though Sherrod Brown has been working the state of Ohio for decades as an elected representative and is favored to win his senate seat back that Jim Renacci is challenging him for, Brown could easily lose if only the 2nd Amendment supporters of Ohio came out and voted for Renacci. You can forget about the union vote, you can forget about all the radical Democrat protestors, you can forget about all the supporters of Sherrod Brown—if just the 2nd Amendment people showed up on election day to vote for Jim Renacci he would win easily. So why not make that happen?

Jim Renacci could have easily have said of the Premier Shooting event that he had been too busy to attend. He wasn’t even in town. He had every reason in the world not to come really, but because he respects the 2nd Amendment so much, he took time out of his very busy day to fly back to Ohio and spend some time with a small crowd at a gun range. It occurred to me as he came by to see me personally that if he was willing to go through all that trouble, why in the hell wouldn’t 2nd Amendment enthusiasts be willing to go to the polls and vote on election night? Its not asking too much. If they did, Jim Renacci would easily beat Sherrod Brown and Donald Trump would have one more senator to work with on the Hill. Ironically, the same held true in every district where the races between Republicans and Democrats were tight. The difference maker could really be gun supporters who pushed candidates over the top for Trump.

In the great book on strategy, The Art of War, the basic premise is that most conflicts are won before anybody ever takes the battlefield. In many ways the only reason Sherrod Brown has won all these many times is because voter turnout is low. People are often busy with other things, so they aren’t interested in voting. But when it comes to values, Jim Renacci represents far more people in Ohio than Sherrod Brown. Democrats learned a long time ago that they best way to leverage conditions as a minority in their direction is to frustrate voters into believing that no matter what they do, elections will keep solutions out of the reach of everyday people. The focus then becomes an us versus them on every issue, such as the 2nd Amendment where we are always afraid that the liberals are going to come after our guns, so we put our defenses in the places where they desire, not where they would serve us best. But really, all we need to do as gun supporters is to put our efforts behind a candidate like Jim Renacci and the gun grabbing from the political left would be over. It really is that simple. Too simple for people to believe, but that is the situation.

As I said, Jim Renacci is just a good person, I have enjoyed getting to know him a bit and if there is any justice in this world, he will beat Sherrod Brown in the upcoming election. But given the amount of gun owners and supporters that there is in Ohio there really isn’t any reason that there should be an “if.” We have the power to make Jim Renacci’s election a “when,” with an easy win against Sherrod Brown. Gun owners and 2nd Amendment supporters far outnumber all other activist groups. The biggest weakness is that conservatives and gun enthusiasts tend to be very individually based, they don’t march in herds like Democrats do, so that makes them harder to organize for voting purposes. But if they could only do that one little thing and show up to vote for Jim Renacci and all the other Republicans on their ticket they would not only preserve their gun rights from the radicalism of the gun grabbing left, but they could advance those rights in productive ways. And all they need to do for that to happen would be to realize that they easily outnumber their opposition, and to just take care of business at the ballot box. There is no reason to worry about gun grabbers going from door to door to take our guns when the conflict can be ended right here and now with a simple—bloodless election. The only thing holding 2nd Amendment supporters back is the knowledge that the power to win all these elections is truly in their hands. All they have to do is use it.

Rich Hoffman

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