New Poll Shows Why Jim Renacci Will Beat Sherrod Brown in Ohio Senate Race: A statistical dead heat from a liberal sampling

I would think that with all the drama being created about possible congressional seats that are in close races giving Democrats hope for the upcoming midterms that the news would be reported the other way. But then again, of course not. One of the biggest races in the country which is threatening one of the Senate’s biggest liberals is that between Sherrod Brown and the conservative challenger Jim Renacci. Where was this news on Fox and the other networks? It’s one of the biggest political stories in the nation yet nobody is reporting it. Can you imagine the earthquake heard around the world if Sherrod Brown fell on election night in Ohio to a handpicked Trump senatorial candidate? Yet only 4% is all that stands between them taken from a liberal poll at the start of September 2018. As it stands Brown has 46% to Renacci’s 42% which is within the margin of error and can be said to be a tie statistically speaking. In the case of this poll sampling, the name recognition and demographics favor Brown by a lot, so to have a statistical tie is big news. Probably the biggest news of the election because it says a whole lot about the true nature of the midterm race.

http://innovationohio.org/2018/09/06/new-poll-shows-tied-gubernatorial-race-close-races-up-and-down-the-ballot/

Sherrod Brown is a liberal in the Senate at the level of an Al Franken or Elizabeth Warren—perhaps even as liberal as Bernie Sanders. In conservative Ohio Brown has managed to stay in office because of the large union vote north of Columbus. But just two years ago many of those union voters, particularly in Cuyahoga County had Trump signs in front of their homes meaning things have changed for the liberal Senator. Renacci is cut from the same cloth as Trump and isn’t an anti-union guy meaning that those typical Brown supporters can feel good about Renacci if they want to vote for a piece of Trump, who had won the state with a roughly double-digit margin over Hillary Clinton. It’s a new political era in Ohio and Brown’s long run as a sitting senator is coming to an end.

There is still a long road to the election, but this particular election has the feel of a football game where a favored team is on the ropes holding on to a slim point advantage. To protect their victory they have to go into a prevent defense which is usually a ticket to a loss from a team that can afford to take risks. In Renacci’s case, he is the aggressor and he has Trump on the sidelines. Brown can’t afford to make Trump supporters angry because he is going after the same voters in many cases that gave Trump that big lead in Ohio. So by attacking Renacci he attacks Trump and that is dangerous for Brown.

There are three debates planned between the two candidates and this is where Brown is very vulnerable, because Renacci has a business background specifically in accounting and can talk numbers in a way that Brown needs to avoid. So in looking at the polling data supplied by Innovation Ohio I would project Renacci to be around 7% above Brown in all actuality. Of course voter turnout will be the key in the end, but at this point Republicans are just as energized in Ohio as Democrats. The problem with the Democrats is that they are at the disadvantage of trying to hold a vulnerable seat as opposed to being able to loosely defend themselves, which is the case of many Republicans like Ted Cruz in Texas facing challenges. Only this race in Ohio is a much bigger story. While Ted Cruz will surely end up with a comfortable victory, Sherrod Brown is poised to lose to Renacci. There is too much time on the clock for Brown to defend his seat against a very sharp Jim Renacci, and a very aggressive candidate at that. Knowing a bit about Renacci that I’ve been able to learn over the course of this year is that he is very competitive. Like Trump he will do whatever it takes to win, he will pound the pavement, give the speeches, energize his base, he’ll do the work. The same can’t be said about Brown. He has grown to take his seat for granted except for election years and he is already on his heels in uncomfortable ways. If he’s hoping to run out the clock on Renacci, that is a sure strategy to defeat. But if he wants to fight Renacci, and indirectly Trump himself, then he risks alienating his union support. Brown is in a really bad position.

The difference with Renacci however as opposed to Trump is that he is pretty mild-mannered and is very likable. He’s a traditional business person who has done things in life for the right reasons and when people meet him, that is what comes across. He’s just so likeable, so the more he goes around Ohio and meets people, the instant association with Trump is a plus, but for his own standing, Jim Renacci is just a good person, and a dedicated fighter which people can trust. That is what is the biggest danger to Brown over the coming two months of the political chess game. Brown for so long has managed to be that “other” senator which allowed Ohioans to feel like a bipartisan state with federal representation. Rob Portman is the conservative senator in the state who doesn’t make much by way of waves, and Brown has been that more blue-collar representative. But times have changed and Renacci has a real blue-collar background which gives voters who lean to the political right as blue-collar union types a person they can vote for without betraying the union hall. For them Renacci is a win, win. For Brown that is a nightmare.

Without question the Ohio senate race is the biggest indicator of Trump’s strength as president and the fact that Renacci is doing so well against the entrenched Brown says everything. But with two months to go, all Brown can really do is try to keep everything in front of him in a prevent position. But that won’t win this game at all. Against a weaker candidate, it might, but not with Jim Renacci. Jim is just the kind of guy who can beat Brown and the old Senator knows it. If the poll had come from Fox News or even the Republican party these numbers might not mean so much, but from Innovation Ohio, its huge news. They are not friendly to conservatives in any way.

I can proudly say that my bet has been on Jim Renacci from the very beginning. When I first learned the strategy of what Trump wanted to do in Ohio I was very supportive of it. And over the months that have followed it was easy to see how smart it was. Renacci is not a loser and he is committed to winning that Democratic held Senate seat and there isn’t much Brown can do to stop him. And that should be the lead story on every network, even CNN. But like any crowd who is rooting for a team they think is a sure thing and are trying to hold a lead against a much more aggressive team, they can only sit there in silence and hope things stay the way they are. But in their gut, they know that’s not the case. Their team is going to lose and all they can do to meet that reality is to sit there in silence and pray.

Rich Hoffman

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Getting to Know Jim Renacci: Why he’s the best guy to unseat Sharrod Brown in Ohio

The last time I had seen Jim Renacci was when he was stepping off Air Force One with President Trump shortly after being asked directly by the president to run for the very important Senate seat in Ohio against the very liberal Sharrod Brown. Brown’s mission has been from the beginning several decades ago to turn Ohio from a red state to blue and after decades in public office has managed to help make it the color purple. Trump recognized that, and he looked at the map at where Senate seats could be picked up to help his agenda, and Sharrod Brown’s seat became part of his ambitious plan. When it was then considered who might have the fortitude and raw talent to take on such an entrenched incumbent the only name the President focused on was that of Jim Renacci—a self-made businessman with a background similar to Trump’s. Even more importantly to all that, Renacci like Trump has a history of winning what he does so for Jim to make a decision to abandon his run to become Ohio’s next governor he stepped up to the considerably harder task of unseating Sharrod Brown in what will prove to be one of the hottest national races in the upcoming midterm election. Before that happens though there is a primary to win and a lot of planning to do, so Renacci was in Mason, Ohio speaking to a very small, but important group of area Republicans.

As readers here know I’m not an autograph seeking, name dropping, picture-taking kind of person when it comes to people of celebrity and social importance. I’ve personally met President Trump on several occasions as well as Newt Gingrich and several other top-tier politicians and I didn’t go out of my way to have a picture taken with them, but Jim Renacci is different. He’s a very tenacious guy whom I believe is extremely sincere in what gaining that Brown Senate seat means to the nation and I respect him as a person for it. Getting to know Renacci as a candidate over the last several months, first as a person challenging the governor’s seat, and now under President Trump’s direct request, running for the valued Senate seat in Ohio to share one of the two available. Rob Portman is the other Senator, so there is a real opportunity here to gain someone in the Senate of Jim’s caliber and to further the Trump agenda with business people who understand it. The videos below are from this meeting which was only a few people listening to Jim speak in a private kitchen. Recording this meeting was a rare opportunity for others to get to know Jim Renacci without the Fox Business Channel cameras, the big rallies, or the interpretations of a left-leaning media filtering out the information they think important. In these two videos Jim just talks about his background and why he is the best candidate of all the Republican challengers to unseat Sharrod Brown.

One of the last questions in this meeting was directed at what Renacci specifically has regarding talent to perform this important historic journey and Jim modestly didn’t answer the question as fully as he could. Being a business guy, he is happy to let his record speak for itself because he honestly likes the other Republicans who are also running for the opportunity to take on Sharrod Brown. After all, only Renacci has been personally endorsed by the President of the United States, so he let that question linger softly—but I’ll be happy to answer it on his behalf. One thing that Jim has that others don’t is that he’s good on television. He is a frequent guest on the Fox Business Channel and MSNBC—among many others and in this modern era of television communication, Jim is good on camera. He knows how to speak the language of television, which is in how to communicate in short segments and with using all the range that a blocked off face can deliver to a direct audience in their living rooms. When running against an entrenched incumbent that has the power of the entire Democratic Party using a friendly press to preserve their position, it takes being not just a great candidate to win a race like this—it will take someone who is fantastic on television, and Renacci is.

In those videos Renacci told the story of how he came into politics in the first place, and it’s a good one that everyone should hear. Jim could easily live a good life as a self-made person and stay out of the political theater, but like Trump he found himself entering politics to offer his unique skills where they were needed most. Jim had a Chevy dealership around the time that General Motors went bankrupt and at the time many dealerships were being forced to be closed. This activity had nothing to do with Jim’s business skills, as he had been very successful, it was simply that he was selected to be closed which went against everything he understood about how things should work. So he reached out to his local congressman for help only to have that person vote against his dealership. The congressman was a Democrat and from there Jim challenged that seat in the next election and won. He has been in congress ever since facing down severe oppositions in the process.

There were many more stories than that communicated in that cozy kitchen in Mason which no media outlet would cover. There isn’t time or enough print for most media to dedicate to those types of stories, leaving voters often mystified about the actual people running. That left this little event to have quite great importance to those lucky enough to attend. To me there isn’t a better positioned person for that Senate job, and Jim certainly has the right level of fight in him to be successful. He will do what needs to be done to win, much like Trump did in his election against Hillary Clinton. Ohio may be purple now politically, but as Jim said in his speech, its going back to red and this upcoming election for this particular Senate seat is the battle that will define that political movement. However, even more important than all that is that it will solidify Trump’s agenda with more help at the federal level with the kind of Republicans that Trump is bringing to the Party as a whole.

I’ve been in the Renacci camp for most of a year now, first as a candidate for governor, and now in his run for Senate. Few politicians excite me the way that Jim does, which is why I did take a picture next to him. I did it because I was proud of him for taking on this big role and I want to help him any way possible. It is my hope that once he is elected that more business professionals at the height of their careers, like Trump was and now Renacci will follow in their footsteps and offer their skills to the world of politics. When we complain that politics is full of unsavory characters it is because many of them are not battle hardened in the rules of business. They are simply referees in the games of life, they are not the superstars who make their livings accomplishing things. Renacci is a new kind of candidate that are emerging under the years of Trump to bring the best of American enterprise into the role of managing our federal government. And that is a great opportunity for America to finally be politically what it has been in all other sectors of private endeavor, which is why getting excited about Jim Renacci for the Ohio Senate seat in Washington D.C. is very easy to do.

Rich Hoffman

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