New Poll Shows Why Jim Renacci Will Beat Sherrod Brown in Ohio Senate Race: A statistical dead heat from a liberal sampling

I would think that with all the drama being created about possible congressional seats that are in close races giving Democrats hope for the upcoming midterms that the news would be reported the other way. But then again, of course not. One of the biggest races in the country which is threatening one of the Senate’s biggest liberals is that between Sherrod Brown and the conservative challenger Jim Renacci. Where was this news on Fox and the other networks? It’s one of the biggest political stories in the nation yet nobody is reporting it. Can you imagine the earthquake heard around the world if Sherrod Brown fell on election night in Ohio to a handpicked Trump senatorial candidate? Yet only 4% is all that stands between them taken from a liberal poll at the start of September 2018. As it stands Brown has 46% to Renacci’s 42% which is within the margin of error and can be said to be a tie statistically speaking. In the case of this poll sampling, the name recognition and demographics favor Brown by a lot, so to have a statistical tie is big news. Probably the biggest news of the election because it says a whole lot about the true nature of the midterm race.

http://innovationohio.org/2018/09/06/new-poll-shows-tied-gubernatorial-race-close-races-up-and-down-the-ballot/

Sherrod Brown is a liberal in the Senate at the level of an Al Franken or Elizabeth Warren—perhaps even as liberal as Bernie Sanders. In conservative Ohio Brown has managed to stay in office because of the large union vote north of Columbus. But just two years ago many of those union voters, particularly in Cuyahoga County had Trump signs in front of their homes meaning things have changed for the liberal Senator. Renacci is cut from the same cloth as Trump and isn’t an anti-union guy meaning that those typical Brown supporters can feel good about Renacci if they want to vote for a piece of Trump, who had won the state with a roughly double-digit margin over Hillary Clinton. It’s a new political era in Ohio and Brown’s long run as a sitting senator is coming to an end.

There is still a long road to the election, but this particular election has the feel of a football game where a favored team is on the ropes holding on to a slim point advantage. To protect their victory they have to go into a prevent defense which is usually a ticket to a loss from a team that can afford to take risks. In Renacci’s case, he is the aggressor and he has Trump on the sidelines. Brown can’t afford to make Trump supporters angry because he is going after the same voters in many cases that gave Trump that big lead in Ohio. So by attacking Renacci he attacks Trump and that is dangerous for Brown.

There are three debates planned between the two candidates and this is where Brown is very vulnerable, because Renacci has a business background specifically in accounting and can talk numbers in a way that Brown needs to avoid. So in looking at the polling data supplied by Innovation Ohio I would project Renacci to be around 7% above Brown in all actuality. Of course voter turnout will be the key in the end, but at this point Republicans are just as energized in Ohio as Democrats. The problem with the Democrats is that they are at the disadvantage of trying to hold a vulnerable seat as opposed to being able to loosely defend themselves, which is the case of many Republicans like Ted Cruz in Texas facing challenges. Only this race in Ohio is a much bigger story. While Ted Cruz will surely end up with a comfortable victory, Sherrod Brown is poised to lose to Renacci. There is too much time on the clock for Brown to defend his seat against a very sharp Jim Renacci, and a very aggressive candidate at that. Knowing a bit about Renacci that I’ve been able to learn over the course of this year is that he is very competitive. Like Trump he will do whatever it takes to win, he will pound the pavement, give the speeches, energize his base, he’ll do the work. The same can’t be said about Brown. He has grown to take his seat for granted except for election years and he is already on his heels in uncomfortable ways. If he’s hoping to run out the clock on Renacci, that is a sure strategy to defeat. But if he wants to fight Renacci, and indirectly Trump himself, then he risks alienating his union support. Brown is in a really bad position.

The difference with Renacci however as opposed to Trump is that he is pretty mild-mannered and is very likable. He’s a traditional business person who has done things in life for the right reasons and when people meet him, that is what comes across. He’s just so likeable, so the more he goes around Ohio and meets people, the instant association with Trump is a plus, but for his own standing, Jim Renacci is just a good person, and a dedicated fighter which people can trust. That is what is the biggest danger to Brown over the coming two months of the political chess game. Brown for so long has managed to be that “other” senator which allowed Ohioans to feel like a bipartisan state with federal representation. Rob Portman is the conservative senator in the state who doesn’t make much by way of waves, and Brown has been that more blue-collar representative. But times have changed and Renacci has a real blue-collar background which gives voters who lean to the political right as blue-collar union types a person they can vote for without betraying the union hall. For them Renacci is a win, win. For Brown that is a nightmare.

Without question the Ohio senate race is the biggest indicator of Trump’s strength as president and the fact that Renacci is doing so well against the entrenched Brown says everything. But with two months to go, all Brown can really do is try to keep everything in front of him in a prevent position. But that won’t win this game at all. Against a weaker candidate, it might, but not with Jim Renacci. Jim is just the kind of guy who can beat Brown and the old Senator knows it. If the poll had come from Fox News or even the Republican party these numbers might not mean so much, but from Innovation Ohio, its huge news. They are not friendly to conservatives in any way.

I can proudly say that my bet has been on Jim Renacci from the very beginning. When I first learned the strategy of what Trump wanted to do in Ohio I was very supportive of it. And over the months that have followed it was easy to see how smart it was. Renacci is not a loser and he is committed to winning that Democratic held Senate seat and there isn’t much Brown can do to stop him. And that should be the lead story on every network, even CNN. But like any crowd who is rooting for a team they think is a sure thing and are trying to hold a lead against a much more aggressive team, they can only sit there in silence and hope things stay the way they are. But in their gut, they know that’s not the case. Their team is going to lose and all they can do to meet that reality is to sit there in silence and pray.

Rich Hoffman

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Vote for Jim Renacci: Trump endorses the Ohio candidate to take on Sharrod Brown’s Senate seat in 2018

The primary election is now under a week away and in Ohio I will be voting very enthusiastically for Jim Renacci for the U.S. Senate. For me there isn’t even a close second. Renacci is the guy who should be the Republican nominee to go after the Sherrod Brown seat this fall, and is best poised to represent the new Trump agenda. So its important that when May 8th comes around that you don’t just sit home and skip the primary vote. Go vote and cast a vote for Jim Renacci, because you can’t take anything for granted these days. We are living in a time of great change, for the better I might add, but to keep that momentum going, you must participate even if in small ways. A vote on May 8th is a small thing, but it all adds up to big things. Even with all that’s going on in the world for which President Trump is a part of he took time recently to officially endorse Jim Renacci:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 1, 2018

Wadsworth, Ohio—Today, U.S. Senate candidate Jim Renacci, received the endorsement of the the Trump Campaign which comes on the heels of President Trump’s personal endorsement last week.

“I am humbled to have received the Trump campaign’s endorsement for U.S. Senate, in addition to President Trump’s recent personal endorsement for my candidacy. I am proud of my record as a strong advocate for the President’s America First agenda and l look forward to continuing to advance that cause in the United States Senate,” said Jim Renacci.

I enjoyed watching the West Virginia Senate debate on Fox News where there is a similar battle going on there as in Ohio. A Republican is looking to knock off a long-held Democratic Senate seat to put the numbers more in Trump’s favor. It’s a strategy that the mainstream media is ignoring in hopes that people won’t notice, but the GOP is very active in this regard in 2018, led largely by the Trump White House. My pick by the way in West Virginia for which I have many readers is of course Don Blankenship. He’s a business guy and he was prosecuted and sent to jail for many of the same reasons Sheriff Joe Arpaio was prosecuted in Arizona. I think it takes a lot of guts to step right out of jail and run for a Senate seat at the federal level taking on an entrenched incumbent. A few years ago such a thing would be unheard of, but in 2018, why the hell not. We’re looking for people in these seats who want America to win and will fight to make it so—even when they have had to face down personal adversity to such extremes. The Blankenship case is one of those types of political stories where the Obama administration was at war with the coal industry and was seeking to weaken it. Blankenship was the CEO of a number of large coal mines all over West Virginia and when an accident happened that killed several people, the Obama Department of Justice used the power it controlled to put a CEO in jail. It was Obama’s way of showing the world that socialism was the new trend in America and that CEOs weren’t safe under the new socialist oriented president.

Jim Renacci in Ohio isn’t nearly as controversial as Blankenship but he could tell similar stories about how the federal government abused him as a private businessman. Jim as an entrepreneur has been very successful and one of his big enterprises was a General Motors Dealership that he ran around the time that GM went bankrupt. Due to a long story of government tampering and a congressman in his district who happened to be a Democrat, Jim reached out to try to save his dealership from the GM collapse. When the Democratic congressman lied to Renacci leading to a series of events where Jim lost his dealership anyway, Jim did the most noble thing he could do at the time, and that was run against that Democrat and beat him to take his senate seat away from him.

Jim Renacci is a fighter, but not in a crazy way, in the careful and precise way that top business executives are—which is the trend for where the Trump controlled Republican Party is moving—thankfully. And that is why President Trump sought Jim out of the crowd to run for the Sharrod Brown seat. Trump needs more senators on Capital Hill and he wants Jim to be one of them. But he also needs someone who can beat an entrenched Democrat to take that seat away, which is how we have arrived at this place in time under these specific circumstances.

The politics of yesterday where fizzled out lawyers and old lobbyists try to get elected to one of the two parties for a chance to become American aristocrats enhancing their social lives greatly in destructive ways without ever being expected to do anything meaningful while in office is over. Now that Trump has won the Executive Branch and is doing a very good job, former business executives like Jim Renacci are getting serious looks where they hadn’t before, and for the first time we are looking at staffing a government not with political hacks, but actual people of real world accomplishment. Who couldn’t like the reasons that Jim Renacci got into politics and his record thus far as a true conservative? Jim is just the kind of person I think every elected position should have in it, if only there were enough good people out there like Jim Renacci.

I’ve had the opportunity to meet Jim Renacci a few times now, one time was when he was traveling on Air Force One with President Trump to visit a local manufacturing plant in southern Ohio. He’s as solid of a person I’ve ever meet as a politician, he’s the real deal, and Trump knows it. Being handpicked by Donald Trump, when it comes to the upcoming fall, the President will come to Ohio several times to help push Jim over Sharrod Brown, and that would be good for everyone. But Trump won’t do the same for those he hasn’t handpicked, because he knows how to tell who the losers are and who the winners will be, and his time is too valuable for losers. Given that qualifier, Trump has already put a considerable amount of time into Jim Renacci, and very early in the process. So if you are a Trump supporter, it is very important to help that overall effort out by voting this upcoming Tuesday, May 8th in the primary.

I think the primary elections in May are every bit as important as the fall elections in November, but often only a fraction of the potential electorate shows up to participate. Don’t be one of those people who stay home that day. Jim Renacci needs your vote, and so does Donald Trump. To keep this conservative reform going that we are currently undergoing, we need fresh troops on the line and Jim Renacci is one of those new, fresh faces that are so badly needed in the Senate. So vote for him and help us turn the corner to the next great battle—the Sharrod Brown Senate Seat!

Rich Hoffman

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